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chris5566

fellow brits do we transfer our money now or hold till later (dont make it political)

fellow brits do we transfer now or hold till later (dont make it political)  

13 members have voted

  1. 1. Transfer our holiday funds now or wait because the currency will go up          

    • wait for the currency to go up
    • transfer now to avoid risk


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chris5566
Posted (edited)

Right lets not talk about what we think of the b word that shall not be named or which side of the fence we are on or if we are still on the fence. this is purely about what the currency will do after march.  I think it looks like the politicians will cause the pound to go up after march as the country will still be a member of a certain club. however how likely do you think the pound will go the other way and would we be better off transferring everything over to Thailand for a holiday NOW rather then wait till after march. rember this is a risk vs reward or buy, sell or hold in a share holder way. NOT a debate about the state of things or the colourful situation we have now.           

Edited by chris5566

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bfinkay

Averaging it out over a term reduces timing risk

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Joethescot

I just transferred my holiday money for May into my TransferWise account today. 

Its a flip of a coin.

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Bonkabit
42 minutes ago, bfinkay said:

Averaging it out over a term reduces timing risk

Suppose you are going in four months from now.

Your budget is 100. Exchange 25 into Thai baht each month for four months.

Doing this is called averaging, sort of like an each-way bet.

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bfinkay
Suppose you are going in four months from now.
Your budget is 100. Exchange 25 into Thai baht each month for four months.
Doing this is called averaging, sort of like an each-way bet.
It's called 'dollar cost averaging', if dealing with large amounts you could do it weekly but then you also need to consider whether the transactional costs of the strategy is worth it.

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chippysam

  i am back in November and holding back , got a feeling it could be mid 40s later in the year . But purely a guess in uncharted territory now . 

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castledrive

I am not so sure about holding back on transferring money later or sooner for a better rate in could be for a lot of us brits myself included it might be more a case of putting Pattaya on hold for a while.

Just returned myself a week ago from a three week trip that I planned to get in before 29th March just in case the pound did take a dive and although I pretty much stuck to the usual routine I still found myself the best part of a grand over what I normally spend for a three week trip but i had anticipated that.

What ever happens with the pound who knows at this stage but I am kind of hoping with the Baht being so strong the Thai government may consider devaluing it after their elections as it has to be affecting tourism but lets not hold our breath on that one.

Sure is going to be interesting to see how the dice roll for the pound over the 2 or 3 years I`m only hoping that I`m not left with the only option of crack hores off the back streets of Peterborough and Leicester for my P4P fun in my soon to be retirement years.

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Scuba+

I think the rate is likely to increase after March due to the extension, then may bounce around a bit depending how B is going

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petermik

To help you I can give you my Thai bank acc.number transfer as much as you wish and when you get here I will return it at the highest rate as from now until you arrive...can,t say fairer than that now can I.......:LMFO:

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1canbrian

im back in August, will just bring a bit extra cash in case...…...hopeing  60bt to pound by then, 555, in my dreams!!!

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davidge

I won’t send cash over for my July trip unless the rate gets to 45. If it doesn’t, I’ll just use some of the money already in my Thai account.

Longer term, I’m pretty pessimistic and will be doing any calculations on 40 to the £ and treat anything more as a bonus. Just hope it isn’t much lower than that for an extended period.

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davidge

If we can try to just answer the OPs question without going too far into the reasons behind it, that would be great.

Sadly, things just get out of hand too quickly otherwise.

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chris5566
7 hours ago, davidge said:

I won’t send cash over for my July trip unless the rate gets to 45. If it doesn’t, I’ll just use some of the money already in my Thai account.

Longer term, I’m pretty pessimistic and will be doing any calculations on 40 to the £ and treat anything more as a bonus. Just hope it isn’t much lower than that for an extended period.

also going in July its really tempting to do it now only three baht lower then the ideal minimum of 45, for now i plan to hold but will most likely bottle it as i like to know what i have avialble in y thai bank account  well in advance of the trip  

 

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davidge
17 minutes ago, chris5566 said:

also going in July its really tempting to do it now only three baht lower then the ideal minimum of 45, for now i plan to hold but will most likely bottle it as i like to know what i have avialble in y thai bank account  well in advance of the trip  

 

If I spend the same as last few trips then I’ve enough there for 3 trips if absolutely necessary. I’d rather keep building it up slowly though.

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chris5566
Just now, davidge said:

If I spend the same as last few trips then I’ve enough there for 3 trips if absolutely necessary. I’d rather keep building it up slowly though.

that makes sense. in my case its the last of what i need for this trip but substantial as its £1300

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petehoax

look, simply flip a coin and that result is as good as any answer you will get here (actually, it will be better). 
the fact is that the current exchange rate ALREADY incorporates ALL information, so it's always fair and always right.
and it's always exactly 50/50 if the rate will go up or will go down. this is always the case and it's completely useless to think about if you should exchange now or exchange in a month from now. this is the case regardless of country and date. 

the ONLY thing you can influence: pay as little comission as possible and get the best possible rate. this normally means to only exchange in pattaya. (at least if we ignore people that get ATM withdrawals with the real intraday rate and with all fees reimbursed). 

I understand the allure of trying to predict how the rate will develop and i understand that it sucks if the exchange rate worsens, but as i said above, it doesn't make any sense to think about it because it can't get you a better answer no matter how much you think and research.

now, dollar cost averaging CAN make sense for investing, but it's normally not useful for something like exchanging money for a holiday. the opportunity costs are too high, the rate you get back in your country are too bad and the variance of the exchange rate is also not really that high over a limited time frame. (now for example, if you want to live in thailand in the future and plan to move there in 5 years, it definitely can make sense to transfer an amount of X every month to reduce the currency risk... but that's a very different situation). 

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dingbat22
On 15/03/2019 at 22:02, chris5566 said:

Right lets not talk about what we think of the b word that shall not be named or which side of the fence we are on or if we are still on the fence. this is purely about what the currency will do after march.  I think it looks like the politicians will cause the pound to go up after march as the country will still be a member of a certain club. however how likely do you think the pound will go the other way and would we be better off transferring everything over to Thailand for a holiday NOW rather then wait till after march. rember this is a risk vs reward or buy, sell or hold in a share holder way. NOT a debate about the state of things or the colourful situation we have now.           

I Remember in Pattaya when it was £25 to a decent Fuck Now its £125 to a decent Fuck, Exchange rate is really fucked up now

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chris5566
16 hours ago, petehoax said:

look, simply flip a coin and that result is as good as any answer you will get here (actually, it will be better). 
the fact is that the current exchange rate ALREADY incorporates ALL information, so it's always fair and always right.
and it's always exactly 50/50 if the rate will go up or will go down. this is always the case and it's completely useless to think about if you should exchange now or exchange in a month from now. this is the case regardless of country and date. 

the ONLY thing you can influence: pay as little comission as possible and get the best possible rate. this normally means to only exchange in pattaya. (at least if we ignore people that get ATM withdrawals with the real intraday rate and with all fees reimbursed). 

I understand the allure of trying to predict how the rate will develop and i understand that it sucks if the exchange rate worsens, but as i said above, it doesn't make any sense to think about it because it can't get you a better answer no matter how much you think and research.

now, dollar cost averaging CAN make sense for investing, but it's normally not useful for something like exchanging money for a holiday. the opportunity costs are too high, the rate you get back in your country are too bad and the variance of the exchange rate is also not really that high over a limited time frame. (now for example, if you want to live in thailand in the future and plan to move there in 5 years, it definitely can make sense to transfer an amount of X every month to reduce the currency risk... but that's a very different situation). 

i understand what you are saying. however i will not be exchanging money in Thailand as it is far safer and just as good to transfer it into my thai bank account using transfer wise. but i understand the point you are making that you think its better to wait as there is no benefit from transferring now   

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petehoax
33 minutes ago, chris5566 said:

i understand what you are saying. however i will not be exchanging money in Thailand as it is far safer and just as good to transfer it into my thai bank account using transfer wise. but i understand the point you are making that you think its better to wait as there is no benefit from transferring now   

transferwise is a great option of course if you have a thai bank account. 
but: my point was not that it's better to wait. my point was that it doesn't matter when you transfer. 

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davidge

3 posts have been removed in the thread now. It’s not that they were offensive or partisan or aggressive in any way, it’s just that any vaguely direct reference to anything political invariably brings out the loonies.

I’d like to keep the thread going but if it gives too much work to the Mods it will have to be locked.

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davidge

Sorry to the rest of you, but now questioning the decision of Mods has led to the thread being locked.

Sadly, it’s why any thread on this sort of topic inevitably doesn’t last long.

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